analysts are looking for a military
victory over China, EU experts are planning to “keep up” with
China, not getting involved in a new war
geo-strategist, senior researcher at the Center
for New American Security
Robert D. Kaplan published an article
Has Begun (“New
Began”) on January 7 in which Foreign Policy Magazine predicted that
the US-China geopolitical opposition would drag on for decades and will be not only commercial
, but also military
Robert Kaplan believes that
‘regardless of whether this or that
is concluded between the leaders of China and America smiling at the camera, the new
is of a long
-term nature.’ The contradictions between the US and China are fundamental, they can never be mitigated, and no negotiations can resolve them, the author writes.
And he continues: “Since relations between the United States and China are the most important in the world
many second and third order
effects — the cold war
between them becomes a negative organizing principle of geopolitics that
… will have
to be taken for granted.”
Kaplan calls the arena of military
confrontation between the United States and China rivalry for dominance in the South China Sea, Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific, as well as cyber war
, which, in his opinion
, China is already leading against America.
Any trade negotiations with
China are doomed to failure, Kaplan believes, because of how China conducts business
: ‘… theft of intellectual property
, the acquisition of sensitive technologies through the repurchase of business
… currency manipulation and so on.’ No trade negotiations will ever change these fundamentals of the Chinese business
model. The economic tension between China and the United States will never disappear, it incites military
A day after the Robert Kaplan article
was published on the website
of the Institute of Modern Warfare at the American Military
Academy of West Point, an article
was published by military
analyst, founder of The Company
Leader, devoted to the study of combat tactics, Dag Meyer (Tracing the Contours of the New
) “Tracing the contours of the new
Doug Meyer, not denying the fact of the beginning of the Cold War
between the two leading economic powers of our time, is trying to find
an answer to the question of whether the United States and China can avoid the “Fukidida trap”. The ancient Greek historian wrote that
the fear of Sparta in the face of the rapid growth of the power of Athens was the cause of the Peloponnesian War
between Sparta and Athens.
In the interpretation of Harvard University professor Graham Allison, the “trap Fukidida” is the fear of the dominant power over the rise of the new
power. The Chinese strategy of the “new
,” Dag Meyer writes, is to calmly build up power, reaching a position in which America will never dare to challenge China. China will gradually change the balance
of power between the United States and China.
Essentially, the American military
analyst’s interpretation of the Chinese geopolitical strategy goes back
to Fukidid’s alternative view
of Sun Tzu’s teaching that
the conflict encompasses a multidimensional continuum, and the strategist’s highest
skill is not to organize a great military
victory, but to “conquer the enemy without
a fight” .
strategy of network-centric wars, the main concept of which is “operations based
on a system effect” (Effect Based
Operations), as noted by well-known military
analyst Hrachya Arzumanyan, is built on the principles of Aristotle, congenial to the stratagem Sun Tzu, but the coming to power of Donald Trump
marked a departure from
this strategy in favor of the primitive “tyrannical imposition of the external high will of the United States” on their geopolitical rivals.
Returning to the question of whether war with
China is inevitable, Doug Meyer comes to the conclusion that
the question to some extent does
sense, since modern wars are fought not only by traditional but also by irregular methods, including trade wars. This prompts to admit that
between the US and China … is already underway.’
However, if the United States considers itself in a state of new
[cold war] with
China, then the European Union
is concerned only with
economic and technological competition with
the PRC. In mid-December 2018, the London
International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) published a joint report with
the German Institute of Chinese Studies Mercator on the Chinese strategy for innovative breakthroughs.
The document is interesting because, coinciding with American
analysts in evaluations of the Chinese strategy of geopolitical expansion, Europeans are barred from
participating in the new
and are aimed only at success in economic competition with
However, European analysts are concerned that
China began to view Europe
as a “technological piggy bank
.” Beijing uses various methods, the report
says, to gain access to European technologies that
it needs for development
, including investments in European companies
, cooperation agreements with
European organizations, cyber espionage, luring ‘European talents’, organizing joint ventures with
, wishing to work
in the Chinese market.
The European authorities have
recently begun to thwart China’s attempts to gain access to the latest technological developments
of the European Union
. So, the purchase in 2008 of the British Dynex Semiconductor by the Chinese railway company
Zhouzhou CRRC Times Electric enabled China to get access to the latest electromagnetic catapults technology for the new
Chinese aircraft carrier.
In 2003, China became a partner in the project of the European global navigation system Galileo, having invested 200 million euros in this project. In 2007, the European Union
banned China from
participating in Galileo, but China has already gained access to a number
of innovations, integrating them into
its Beidou navigation system.
Now the EU has firmly blocked China’s access to its advanced developments
. For example, last year
, for national security
reasons, the German government
banned the Chinese company
Yantai Taihai Group from
buying the German company
Leifeld Metal Spinning, which manufactures metalworking machines for the aerospace industry. The European Commission is preparing to confront China in the field of cyber espionage.
However, British and German analysts believe that
EU competition with
China is not a zero-sum game
only one side wins. They recommend that
the EU leadership and the governments of the EU member states invest
in the development
of their technologies, including dual-use, without
trying to blindly copy
China’s economic strategies. European states should
use their own competitive advantages.
strategic interests, security
or defense interests are not threatened, the European personnel
reserve should look
for opportunities to cooperate with
China,” write the authors of the IISS report
and Mekator, noting that Europe
needs to “go to keeping up with
USA News. American News.
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