Russian scientists warned of the threat of a collision of the Earth with an asteroid
The asteroid Apophis in 2068 may fall to Earth, and in 2029 it will pass
at a distance ten times closer to the planet than the distance from
Earth to the Moon, was calculated at the department of celestial
mechanics of St. Petersburg State University. They prepared the
corresponding report for the Moscow Royal Space Readings.
‘A unique feature of this asteroid is a well-established close approach to the Earth on April 13, 2029 at a distance of 38 thousand kilometers (the Moon is 384 thousand kilometers away from the Earth). This approach causes significant scattering of possible trajectories, among them there are trajectories containing a convergence of 2051 The corresponding resonant returns contain a lot (about a hundred) of Apophis’s possible collisions with the Earth today, the most dangerous one in 2068, ”the report’s thesis reads, which will be read at end of january
Before a possible collision with the Earth in 2068, the asteroid moves closer to our planet in 2044 by 16 million kilometers, in 2051 – by 760 thousand kilometers, and in 2060 – by 5 million kilometers.
The possibility of a collision of Earth with Apophis in 2068 was previously warned by NASA scientists. Specialists of the laboratory of jet propulsion control, the University of Hawaii and the University of Pisa found that the probability of a collision in 2068 is not higher than 2.3 per 1 million.
The asteroid Apophis measuring 325 meters was discovered in 2004. The discovery caused a stir – calculations showed that there is a probability of 2.7% that Apophis, who received his name in honor of the ancient Egyptian god of evil and destruction, would collide with the Earth in 2029. Then scientists have eliminated this threat, having calculated that on April 13, 2029 an asteroid will fly at a distance of 37.6 thousand kilometers from the center of the Earth.
However, it was found that after approaching in 2029, an asteroid can change its orbit so that it will collide with Earth on its next return. To do this, the asteroid at the time of convergence must pass through the ‘keyhole’ – a very narrow region of space. Previously, it was believed that an asteroid passing through one of these “wells” could lead to its fall to Earth in 2036, but in January, NASA experts found out that this risk was practically excluded, the probability of this event was less than 1 per 1 million .