Probably in 2020, US President Donald Trump will not be nominated for a
second term. But he has already gone down in history. The usual problem
of scientists with the ‘exact date’ of turning points is not worth it.
The 100-year era of American domination broke down in 2017 with the
arrival of the 45th master in the White House. They try to call his
election a “misunderstanding” and a “system failure”, but the excuses
sound too helpless.
The Democrats did not abandon the idea of impeachment in the first two years of Trump’s cadence and will now have to support this topic until the end: giving up on the eve of new elections (and the “eve” in America is the second two years of cadence) will become Trump’s success. Democrats will have to go to the polls with the brand of losers, and this is fraught.
True, the strained squeezing of new subjects on the subject of impeachment will turn them into clowns, but it’s also true that the country is tired of confrontation. In addition, too much Trump upset his supporters and mobilized opponents. Therefore, in any case, the best option for Republicans may be to replace the horse at the crossing.
And upsetting his supporters Trump, we repeat, strongly. An assertive policy under the slogan “Let’s make America great again” was a success because of the surprise factor, but so far only owners of industrial corporations have felt it, but the retaliatory measures of China have touched ordinary voters, for example, farmers. Whether and they will get a share of positive feelings until November 2020 is doubtful. But Donald Trump, as we noted above, has already secured a place in history. For three reasons.
First. His election showed the world that, in principle, an American voter could choose a war with allies and partners. Economic, but extremely destructive. It also turned out that the American voter does not understand the obvious: making America great again, “returning” half of the world’s GDP to it in only one way – the new world war, where the US will fight a little on the Pacific Ocean and even less in Europe, and the US will not fall one bomb (in 1941, Hawaii was not a state). Or understand. What is even worse.
The second reason. Trump showed how easily the US can throw even such a pillar of the coexistence of ‘civilized humanity’ as globalization into a landfill. Yes, we needed a certain courage to admit that for the last decade and a half globalization has been working not for the US, but for China. The daredevil was found, globalization was utilized, healthy patriotism was in trend.
For each, far from pompous phrase of Russian politicians about patriotism and spiritual values (braces) fastening it, the liberal community responds in the old manner with a volley of phrases about “victory”, “Orthodox caliphate” and patriotism, as “the last refuge of a scoundrel” (for some reason attributing This phrase Vladimir Lenin). ‘At a time when the Tesla of globalization is plowing the expanses of the hyperlup.’ And here is a story about a “world without borders” dying. She was killed by the United States.
The third reason for Trump’s perpetuation is the scrapping of the Pax Americana system itself. No matter how later the democrats tried to negate the consequences of his rule, though, figuratively speaking, they would wallow in the hands of their allies and partners and swear that “never again”, not a single relatively independent country would do this.
The point is not that responsible elites have been drawing conclusions for decades, and, all the more so, not to be “offended”. The reason for the phenomenon of Trump: they are not eliminated. So, the 47th or 49th President of the United States can again try his luck. For reliability, having previously provoked a global armed cataclysm. See point one. And all trying to avoid troubled partners in business and politics, all other things being equal.
Alas, it’s too early to bury the USA. They still have two pillars of the “progress of civilized humanity” (with the help of which it will be possible to imitate for some time the “non-economic” existence of killed globalization). These two pillars: Americanization with the help of soft power and ‘democratization’ just by force.
We are unlikely to prefer films with Gao Yuanyuan to Scarlett Johansson in the foreseeable future, but the general message of Hollywood: “You don’t have to be an American, but you must be a patriot of the USA,” even though “Russian villains” were always perceived our audience is very conditional. As for English, on the one hand, the largest English-speaking country in the world today is India, where two-thirds of schools already teach in English and in many educated families, parents speak it so that it becomes native for children.
On the other hand, the exit of Britain from the European Union could undermine the position of the English language in the most important region. For Scandinavians and the Dutch, English became the second native, but the Germans and French are determined to agree on a ‘bilingual Europe.’ The vindictiveness with which European officials and experts spoke about the EU language policy after Brexit, shows the real attitude of Europeans to the language of Shakespeare.
On January 22, a meeting will take place in Aachen, which has already been announced as historic, referring to the Treaty of Elysée, which was also signed on January 22, but in 1963 by French President Charles de Gaulle, German Chancellor Conrad Adenauer. In Aachen, their heirs Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel will sign an agreement on the creation of the nucleus of a new association within a loose European Union: the interests of ‘ballast’ and ‘Trojan horses’, such as pro-American Poland, are actually discounted.
Those who wish to join the duumvirate will have to accept strict requirements in the areas of common defense and security, economic integration, eurocurrency, budgetary control, etc., including cultural and linguistic policies.
The third pillar of American politics is “democratization” (“spreading freedom”, “instilling human values”, etc.). “Democratization” has long and almost openly become a tool for strengthening American influence in each particular country.
Since democratization in this sense is the admission of foreign funds into the country to finance ‘independent’ organizations, NGOs, de facto permission for campaigning and propaganda in the interests of foreign states, permission for funding their election campaigns. In the case, if the elections do not give the desired result, the previously created ‘legitimate’ tools of ‘overthrowing the anti-people regime by the will of the people’, by the very NGOs, will be used in the country. Win-win.
If ever, and in any form, a trial of the United States takes place, first of all it is for this, for the debasement, the rape of the principles and the mission of democracy in the history of mankind. The United States confronted the vicious choice between independence and such a “only true” and “universal” democracy, making fun of timid attempts to combine democracy with sovereignty (remember the sophistication of the slogan of protecting sovereign democracy: “souvenir”, “superstitious”, etc. ?)
For 200 years, philosophers criticized Benjamin Franklin’s famous aphorism: “Those who are willing to sacrifice essential freedom for a little temporary security are not worthy of either freedom or security.” Proving with the end of the Second World War that the paradox of Franklin is false – only democracy and ensures human security.
The cold war passed in equilibrium, but the last 30 years showed Franklin was right, and literally: those who are ready to sacrifice their country’s freedom, sovereignty for the security that degenerated democracy promises, lose both.
So what can we expect from the USA in the 21st century? It is clear that in the conditions of the forced abandonment of one of their previous instruments of influence – “economic globalization” – the United States will sharply increase attention to the remaining two: Americanization and “democratization” – more propaganda of values, more sanctions and blackmail without any attempts to justify, more color revolutions , and proxy wars, more direct seizure of resources to cut off competitors from them.
So it will be with any presidents and any party layouts in Congress. The
purpose of this tool is to preserve the domination of the United
States, it is simply forced. This is what a truly civilized humanity
should be preparing for.
Worse, the Europeans will not even be figuratively lying around with the Europeans for apologizing for Trump. There are more “decent’, reliable and familiar ways of consolidating allies, restoring shaken relations with them – countering the common enemy. Whether Europe or some of its parts will stand is a big question.
The world sees a threat. A recent attempt by the US ambassador to Germany Richard Grenella to intimidate German companies involved in the Nord Stream 2 project with sanctions has caused an outburst of outrage in the country. The deputy chairman of the SPD (one of the two parties of the ruling coalition), Ralph Stegner, compared the behavior of the “diplomat” with the actions of the occupying authorities: ““ Does Mr. Grenella know that the times of the High Commissioners in Germany are over? ”.
And Merkel’s successor at the head of the CDU, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, expressed either a little softer, or more mockery, calling the ambassador’s words “very surprising in terms of diplomacy”. Grenell tried to explain his words with “US concern for European security,” but here the officials did not find what to say. They were helped by users of social networks: ‘The ambassador and his boss are incorrigible idiots.’
Turkey, “an ally with a pair of daggers in each sleeve” (an ally is not Russia, just a partner for it) clearly and already, it seems, finally made the United States understand that cooperation with Moscow in Syria, in the military-industrial and other spheres is the case , separate from cooperation with Washington and from obligations under NATO.
Very important signal, finally, gave India. More recently, at the end of 2016, India received the status of a “key partner” of the United States, i.e., the same rights to acquire American weapons, equipment and technology that NATO members have, Japan, Israel. The American 7th Fleet, in turn, received the right to use the country’s naval bases.
Trump’s introduction in March of this year’s 25% steel and aluminum duties have dramatically cooled this love. In April, the United States included Rosoboronexport, a key Russian company providing military supplies to the subcontinent, on the sanctions list. In May, the threat of sanctions were oil supplies from Iran.
All this forced India to defend itself. However, during the last decade, the Indian elites realized the potential of their country, the fact that India is too great a country to build its foreign policy exclusively around two border conflicts – with China and Pakistan.
In June 2017, India and Pakistan became full members of the SCO, and in August last year, for the first time in history, they participated in joint anti-terrorist exercises ‘Peace Mission – 2018’ at the Chebarkul training ground in the Chelyabinsk region.
On January 10 of this year, the Government of India announced the introduction of a 30% duty on agricultural products from the United States on January 31. Indian anti-sanctions hit a third of the prodimport of India from the USA. $ 857 million, almost a billion, is not the largest amount, but New Delhi hinted that if Washington misjudged the situation, then anti-sanctions would follow against American industrial products.
Important point. India and Iran agreed to settle in rupee oil. Obviously, because this deal is more important for Tehran. In November last year, it became known that payments for the S-400 Triumph complexes will be made in rubles. The conclusion is obvious. Apparently, according to this principle, the de-dollarization of foreign trade will be built both within the framework of the SCO and outside it. Together with the collapse of the dollar as the global currency of the United States, instead of doubling the GDP, it will be “halved”. Good luck.
In 2014, the Anaconda crawled across the expanses of the Internet – ‘a plan of slow but sure strangulation of Russia.’ Geographically, its important element was to be the coverage of Russia by the US allies. But something in the jungle went wrong, and, frankly, Russia is not the only country involved in the destruction of the ‘American world order.’
The US will make peace with China, India, Europe, Turkey many more times. Maybe with Russia. But worn out: ‘you can not push the toothpaste back into the tube’ as relevant as ever. Tectonic shifts have occurred and their basis is the most serious: the world’s fear of the United States for its future, political and economic well-being.
The US has a choice: accept the norms of a civilized community or become an outcast.